The interpretation of chance

The human brain understands chance theoretically, but is incapable of accepting it concretely as the sole explanation for an event: we always put forward a logical explanation for the observed phenomenon (skill, dexterity, intelligence...) that would enable us to control or act on chance. When the player can intervene in the game, such as choosing his own lottery numbers, deciding when to pull the lever on the slot machine, throwing the dice himself..., his illusion of being able to act on chance is reinforced.

However, in a game of chance, each draw, each throw of the dice, each event, must be absolutely independent of the preceding and following ones. In fact, this is a necessary condition for it to be considered a game of chance: the outcome of the game cannot be predicted in any way. Yet we are unable to conceive of theindependence of events: we devise strategies, we analyze previous events and statistics, to predict the next outcome.

Experiments carried out in Canada (K. Benhsain and R. Ladouceur, 2004) have shown that university mathematics students or engineering students, despite having excellent knowledge of mathematics and statistics, are no better equipped than others to perceive chance accurately. On the contrary, the illusion of control is often stronger among them, due to their mathematical expertise.

Finally, many gamblers have misunderstood what "redistribution rate" really means: by playing very infrequently, it's possible to come out on top in a gaming session. But in the long term, it's impossible to get rich.